Surviving The Supernova

How Scrum Can Help

Whatever technology you are using now, there is a good chance that it will be irrelevant ten years from now. From the software you use for work to the hardware you have with you now. From the devices you use at home to the means you use to get from A to B. The world is changing ever faster. But can we keep up? Welcome to the Technological Supernova!

This rapid technological acceleration becomes even more evident when we consider that the cell phone started becoming mainstream in 1996. Within a span of only 20 years, the degree of connectedness multiplied, intensified and accelerated. 35 years ago, around 1984, we had only about 1.000 internet-connected devices. Historically, technological innovations often allowed for a few generations to get used to them, in what now only takes 15 years. Within only a single generation, we see many technologies emerge and become irrelevant.

Smartphones are just one example of the technological changes that we’re seeing. Friedman makes a strong case that this is just the start. With rapid innovations coming from the fields of artificial intelligence, medical devices, implants, 3D-printing, cloud computing, renewable clean energy and financial innovations like Bitcoin, we should expect this acceleration to continue as technological innovations continue to emerge.

Together, accelerating changes in technology, the market and climate change drive what Friedman calls the ‘Supernova’. Taking its name from the event of a dying (massive) star, the Supernova “keeps on releasing energy at an exponentially accelerating rate”. The Supernova increases the flows of information and knowledge, the inter-connectedness and the complexity of our society. It is no wonder, says Friedman, that countries, companies and individuals struggle to keep up and resort to the safety of familiar things (like nationalism and traditionalism). Our ability to adapt can’t keep up with the Supernova.

But as complexity increases as a result of the Supernova, the value of experts, simple solutions and leaders rapidly declines. In his book, Harford quotes a large study that shows that predictions of experts (in economics, politics, finance, technology) tend to be only slightly more accurate than those of non-experts. So Harford, as an expert, makes a strong case for ignoring experts.

Harford then proceeds to show the many flaws of hierarchical organizations and centralized decision-making, and their complete inability to make the right decisions within the Supernova. Using different examples (e.g. the Armed Forces), he shows how ‘Command & Control’-like approaches (the top decides and pushes orders down) fail to be flexible and rapid enough to adjust to the situation on the ground. They simply lack the kind of local knowledge that is required to make the right decision rapidly.

Together, Harford and Friedman offer a number of solutions to help us survive and adapt to the Supernova. It should be noted that both are quite positive about the future, giving lots of examples of successful organizations and approaches to deal with complexity. Its certainly not easy, and there are no ‘silver bullets’, but it is certainly possible to survive in the Supernova and even use its energy to grow.

For me, the Scrum Framework is one example of such a process. It leverages local knowledge by having self-managing Scrum Teams work closely with their stakeholders (customers and users). By doing so, it pushes autonomy down to the people that are actually doing the work. And because Scrum Teams deliver new versions of their product frequently and incrementally, they can more quickly learn and adapt to what is happening when needed. It makes them, and the entire organization, more responsive to change. And more competitive in their ability to adapt to changing markets, demands from customers and emerging technologies. I believe that the Scrum Framework is one way to survive, and even thrive on, complexity.

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