Derek Carr Is a Boring Pick. Is He a Good One?

The Oakland Raiders QB may be an MVP candidate in real life, but not in fantasy

The common narrative is that Carr broke out last season, but the numbers tell a different story. Carr completed 357 passes in 2016, compared to 350 and 348 his previous two seasons. His yardage decreased from 3987 to 3937, and his touchdowns dropped from 32 to 28. He did miss a game, so the numbers would tilt a bit more toward last season with that included, but the truth is that Carr posted exceptionally similar numbers in 2015 and 2016.

Carr did cut his interceptions in half. And he won. And it’s that latter one that jumpstarted the narrative. The Raiders were everyone’s feel good team last season, and Carr was a big part of that. He led seven fourth-quarter comebacks and took the Raiders to 12 wins. Winning games makes Derek Carr a very good NFL quarterback — but does it make him a good fantasy one?

In fantasy football, Derek Carr has not been an MVP. He hasn’t even been a strong starter. He’s basically been replacement level. Last year was Carr’s first among the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks and even then he finished just 9th. Carr’s passing attempts have been steady year to year. His yards per attempt and touchdown rates have stabilized over the last two seasons. That’s nice and reliable but it doesn’t make Derek Carr a fantasy star — just consistent.

Carr’s numbers paint the picture of a guy who should finish the season somewhere around 4000 yards, 30 TDs, and 10 interceptions. That’s… fine. It’s fine, really. He doesn’t run the ball much, averaging 100 yards a season without a rushing TD to his name. He doesn’t have many big games. He’s still recovering from a broken leg, and he now has a big lumbering back in Marshawn Lynch to steal some TD opportunities. There’s plenty of reasons to believe Carr is an excellent football player but not many that paint him as an excellent fantasy football pick.

Derek Carr is the sort of pick that builds you a nice, safe 4th- or 5th-place team. If that’s you, by all means. There’s a pretty good chance you’ll wish you hadn’t missed out drafting someone like Graham or Moncrief or Henry by midseason. Will you really regret passing on Carr?

Derek Carr might be the highest-paid player in the NFL, and he may even be an MVP candidate. But he’s a boring and lazy pick on draft day.

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