Bitcoin may come to an end sooner than you think.

I made a presentation on Cryptocurrency and Blockchain (~130 pages) to a group of Fintech professionals, lawyers, public policy advocates recently. One observation is that at a price of $10,000 per BTC, only 90 countries can economically mine bitcoin. After 2 reward era’s (probably around 5 years), there will only be 9 countries who can afford to mine at the same price today, assuming difficulty and hash rate remain the same.

However, difficulty has been increasing at 5% per period (every 2 weeks), and hash rate has been increasing at 2% per day. I think in less than 3 years, the resources required to mine bitcoin (both electricity and hardware) will make it economically infeasible to mine — thus, the whole bitcoin network may come to a halt. No miner will will mine at a lost, hence, no transaction can be validated by miners. The mining vicious cycle starts to tip the balance of incentive within the bitcoin network.

Unless the developer community decides to change the supply curve or difficulty formula, or change the consensus protocol, or the price of bitcoin exponentially increases, or a break-thru on cheap mining, bitcoin will come to an end in less time than you think.

In the same presentation, I have also shown an effective way to attack the Bitcoin network. That will come next…

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